I am probably not the only American who is wondering what the endgame is regarding the U.S. military attacking and demolishing speedy, little drug boats traveling out of Venezuela while seeking to destabilize the Maduro regime in Caracas.

There are many possibilities.

Some of this might be 4-D chess with China, some of this might be a lust for Venezuelan oil, some of this might be rough retaliation for the gang activity being run by Venezuelan illegal immigrants in America, some of this might be the desire to force an American Navy base that will overlook the Caribbean Sea, and some of this might be a dry run for hitting the cartels south of our own border in Mexico. Given that we are most certainly not being told the whole story (or even a decent chunk)—and are likely being fed a daily diet of plausible yet persuasive lies meant to conceal—it is difficult to judge the twists and turns of our military and geopolitical strategies. Nonetheless, it is worth taking a moment to try to parse out why we are adopting such an aggressive stance in this case.

It is rare to find anyone agreeing about anything these days, but the major international human right organizations are all of one voice in condemning the arrests, tortures, and executions that are routinely used to silence dissent and terrorize the Venezuelan people. Over 20 million Venezuelans—roughly 2 out of 3 of their citizens—are living in crushing poverty exacerbated by that nation’s extraordinarily corrupt and incompetent government. It is estimated that between 10% to 13% of the global supply of cocaine flows through Venezuela thank to their porous border with Columbia and the complicity of their security forces, but neighboring countries such as Guatemala transship far more cocaine. Yes, Venezuela is a hot mess and a global villain, but does this justify deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford and a Carrier Strike Group to the waters off Venezuela?

Some pointed contrast is perhaps helpful here. There are approximately 250,000 Venezuelan illegal immigrants currently in America, which sounds like a lot until one considers that 5.2 million illegal immigrants from Mexico are here at the present time. Moreover, the catastrophic rise in American deaths from methamphetamine and fentanyl have hardly any connection with Venezuela. These deadly drugs almost inevitably originate in Mexico, yet we are still not launching drone strikes against Mexican drug smugglers or their cartel bosses. It could, of course, be the case that strikes and threats against Venezuela are, in fact, designed to be very pointed warnings to the government of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to crack down on the drug empires in her own nation—or else. 

However, it seems very unlikely that the Trump administration will want to jeopardize Mexican cooperation that has helped to all but close our Southern border (although, given recent violent political protests directed against President Sheinbaum’s corrupt administration, this could change in the blink of an eye), so we again circle back to why Venezuela has been singled out for special punishment. Is this a legitimate anti-drug campaign meant to curb the cartels or a thinly-veiled attempt to install a new and more friendly Venezuelan government that will once again open the door to American oil companies—which were kicked out when Venezuela’s oil industry was nationalized in 1976—in order to upgrade production that peaked roughly 25 years ago? In a world where the price of oil is a key determinant of global economic activity (nothing will prompt a recession faster than a steep rise in oil and gas prices), it is hard to escape the suspicion that the Trump administration wants a reliable and secure oil trading partner far away from the never ending turmoil in the Middle East—and is willing to blow up some Caribbean smugglers to get this.

Moreover, it is abundantly clear from the quick and decisive strike back in June that obliterated Iran’s nuclear weapons in one fell swoop that the Trump administration is willing to use military force as an instrument of foreign policy. President Trump and his Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, have stated that they want a muscular military that is wholly committed to fighting and winning wars, so the weak Wokeism of the Biden years is no longer operative. The deployment now taking place in the Caribbean might be less about threatening Venezuela and more about sharpening our swords with an ocean-going training exercise in case our nation needs to stand up to aggression from nations such as China, Russia, or North Korea. 

We live in a dangerous world, and it is clearly reckless to fail to prepare our armed forces to strike when necessary to protect us. Now rebranded as Operation Southern Spear, ongoing military operations throughout the Caribbean will put pressure on Venezuelan President Maduro. In addition, these operations will ably advertise our ability to mobilize overwhelming force should the situation demand it, which is by far the best way to deter an attack upon us, our allies, or our interests around the world.

Gunboat diplomacy is alive and well in 2025, and those who might think of striking either America or our friends will need to think carefully about the consequences of confronting an American military that is newly invigorated—and ready to hit hard.