The beginnings of major wars seem obvious and explainable only in retrospect; at the time they start, it is much more like walking stupidly along and suddenly discovering you’ve stumbled into an open pit of snakes. War is always an unwelcome surprise that is preceded by idiotic misunderstandings, foolish misstatements, and unbelievable misjudgments that are cold comfort to those who will soon be doing the dying.

We often talk about the so-called fog of war, but the pre-war period is equally obscure and confusing. The propaganda, lies, and secrecy practiced by both sides in any conflict make it difficult to discern where the lines between an uneasy peace, bloody skirmishes, and serious warfare are to be found. The posturing and playacting by politicians who are seeking to either cover themselves in glory or frantically hide their mistakes are yet another barrier to understanding just how close we are to toppling into the abyss.

We already have hot wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, and both are effectively battles between America and Russia (with China warily looking for advantage) that are being waged by proxies who are focused on their own regional terrain. The globe is also dotted with innumerable lower visibility bloodfests being fought over drug territories, religious differences, and long-standing tribal conflicts. Consequently, we live in a worldwide bull market for the makers of munitions, and the assembly lines are running round the clock in order to help keep the killing on schedule.

It would not be a stretch to state that our lovely planet is starting to resemble a slaughterhouse, and tensions will run still higher as shortages of food, fuel, money, and potable water start to bite due to both economic disruptions and shortsighted government policies. Hatreds are already driving murderous rages; desperation will only make our world even more combustible.

Those who counsel peaceful solutions are, of course, absolutely correct in their good intentions; however, history has taught us that the doves of peace are often shot from the sky when a crisis erupts. The most tragic example of this harsh truth is the Kellogg-Briand Pact of 1928, an international agreement whose signatories renounced war as a method of settling disputes between nations. Just a year later the Great Depression crushed the worldwide economy, and a demagogue by the name of Adolf Hitler began his rise to power; a decade later, the withered hopes of the Kellogg-Briand Pact notwithstanding, World War Two was upon us and 80 million people began their inexorable and horrible march toward their deaths.

The widespread chaos in the world today is beginning to take on the sickening characteristics of a global conflagration, and it is not unreasonable to worry whether we are lacking the leadership capable of steering us to safety. Pandering and prevaricating are poor substitutes for statesmanship, and the notable weakness projected by America has clearly emboldened those tyrants and terrorists who believe that we are good at talking—but little else. Rattling your saber is meaningless if your opponent is certain you will keep it sheathed, and a country that cannot even work up the will to control its own national borders looks like an easy mark to those ready to use bullets and bombs to impose their will.

Calls for conferences and ceasefires inspire little but smirking from freedom’s enemies, and history has taught us time and again that counting on the goodwill of murderous maniacs is a poor strategy. The old Roman truism—“If you want peace, prepare for war”—is as true today as it ever was, so we must be much more concerned with combat readiness than pronoun usage if we hope to prevail in the global conflict that is perhaps lurking dead ahead.

When battles begin to rage, we must be able to trust our political and military leaders with our very lives, and I do not believe I am the only American who has his doubts at the present time. It takes a special sort of fortitude to lead a nation into battle, which is hard to discern amongst the social media warriors now running our country. If mean tweets send you into a tailspin, what will you do when laser-guided missiles are obliterating our troops, destroying our supply lines, and sinking our ships?

We need to be armed and unafraid to act if necessary, and we must always remember that many wars have been inadvertently started by those most determined to avoid them.